Sustainabiity

Keith Hart from the Open Antropology Cooperative is an Antropologist interested on the study of the impact mobile technology on poor people´s access to the market. I find his work of outmost interest, thus I enclose a note on his recent writtings on Africa. Hart explains that the Maurer’s Institute for Money, Technology and Financial Inclusion at UC Irvine has received a grant from the Gates Foundation to explore, among other things, the impact of mobile telephony on poor people’s access to and use of money. The focus region is East Africa, and Kenya in particular, recently emerged as place for world’s leading innovation in this area. While Africans largely missed out on the infrastructure of electricity grids, they have leaped forward on mobile phones. These might easily have a built-in payment system whose potential has been blocked in more advanced economies by entrenched financial interests.

“At a time when the hardware manufacturers in the rich countries are wondering how to sell more and fancier computers in a sated market, Kenyans have taken the lead in adapting cheap old machines for use by the world’s poor masses“, explains Hart. Nowhere else has the use of mobile phones for banking, commercial and administrative purposes been taken further than there. The history of development in this area has not been long: M-PESA (short for mobile money in Swahili) was launched by the Kenyan affiliate of Vodafone  in March 2007. It quickly captured a share of the market for cash transfers and grew very rapidly, with 6.5 million subscribers by May 2009 and 2 million daily transactions in Kenya alone. In December 2008, a group of banks successfully lobbied for an audit of M-PESA, in an attempt to slow down its growth; but the audit found that the service was robust.

Keith Hart explians other aspects to this technological advancement: “There is a lot more to this revolution than just banking. Instead of walking to a distant town and queuing to pay taxes and fees, often unsuccessfully, people can now pay them instantly with their mobile phones. Relatives of the victims of road accidents in remote areas can buy blood to be sent from a regional hospital in time to save lives. Farmers can check market prices around the country before deciding when and where to send their produce for sale. Families dispersed by migration can keep in touch by phone, using highly sophisticated methods at little or no cost. Now this is a financial revolution that anthropologists ought to have plenty to say about. And not just because it is in an exotic part of the world.”

I am listening to a podcast released by Morning Ireland today on using e-books for learning in schools. There is a pilot project at a Dublin school –you may find more searching the archive under “Learning by e-book”. This initiative interest me because about one year ago I proposed the interest of using e-paper (e-books actually) to deliver annual corporate reports to the press in my company. We studied options available in the market, had pilot devices checked, and press initiatives researched. Guess what, initiatives were pretty advance in Belgium, were papers had on offer devices that got the news updated via wifi. Savings on paper and time were astonishing. I still consider it to be the future, combining some sort of e-device that is able to display text, update and allow for new tools to process it in novel ways.  

Hace escasamente un mes, Xavier Mena compartía su visión sobre: “Hacia donde va la economía mundial” (ESADE-Madrid, 17-06-08), con reflexiones interesantes sobre la energía  “nuestro modelo energético no lo vamos a cambiar en dos días… la inversión va rezagada en extracción de nuevas prospecciones”. Avanzó un mapa mundial de ganadores y perdedores de la coyuntura actual, relacionado en el medio plazo con el acceso a la energía y con el agua: “El problema del agua es fundamental”, y pronostica grandes hambrunas en China e India (en este mismo sentido, consulta si estás interesado las opiniones de Jeffrey Sachs, sobre agua y energía en España, en su visita reciente a Madrid).

Según Mena, asistimos a un cambio en el sistema financiero mundial de la transcendencia del que supuso la crisis del 1929. Datos relevantes, que apoyan la tesis del profesor de ESADE:

•  En USA los valores nominales de las viviendas han bajado (2 millones de familias han devuelto las llaves de sus viviendas, -algo imposible en España, donde el derecho hipotecario obliga a responder con los bienes propios de las deudas contraidas). Algunas estimaciones arrojaban la cifra de que podrían estar afectadas 21 millones de familias.

• La petición de los bancos centrales de que se publiquen las depreciaciones de activos tratan de evitar los problemas que tuvo Japón en los 1990s.

• Novedad: la entrada de los fondos soberanos en los capitales de los bancos. Mena plantea la reflexión ¿Es inversión o invasión?

• Sobre los riesgos en los bancos USA: En marzo 2008 la FED transgrede todas las normas de su estatuto: Abre la ventanilla de la liquidez a los bancos de inversión, que acceden a liquidez sin cumplimiento de coeficientes ni supervisión. La competencia, que no ha acudido a la ventanilla, y los bancos comerciales, levantan la voz, les parece tratamiento asimétrico. Una parte de las subidas en los mercados de commodities mundiales podría explicarse por esta razón: como no hay supervisión, los bancos de inversión podrían haber ido a los mercados especulativos para obtener ganancias. Las consecuencias las conocemos: de los desequilibrios de precios en las commodities, a las hambrunas.

• El banco central europeo esta haciendo de mercado efectivo, y ha alargado el plazo de los prestamos.            

Mena habla de un cambio de modelo bancario en el mercado estadounidense (insiste en que no en España), y utiliza una metáfora: “Los cambios son comparables a los producidos por la caída de los meteoritos en la época de los dinosaurios”. ¿En qué consisten los cambios? La posibilidad de titulizar en títulos opacos en USA se acaba. Las agencias de rating van a separar por imperativo regulatorio areas en las que existe conflicto de interés. El modelo de “separación en la originación” crediticia se va a reducir drásticamente. La banca tendrá que recapitalizar, desapalancar y restringir el crédito. Apuesta por que la FED probablemente no va a seguir bajando los tipos: comenzará a preocuparse de la inflación. Nos deja con un mensaje optimista: La economía americana va a sanear el próximo año, para eso son tan prácticos y tienen flexibilidad en el mercado de trabajo. ¿Nos preocupa Europa? Mena dice sobre Europa que los tipos son sensibles a las expectativas de inflación, por lo que no van a bajar. El hecho de que a largo plazo estén en el 4%, significa que los inversores creen en las posibilidades de control de la inflación del BCE. ¿España? Entrábamos en el agotamiento claro del modelo basado en consumo familiar+construcción –Mena dixit hace un mes. 

Las perspectivas son mas halagueñas para América Latina, que en crisis anteriores sufría fugas de capital inmensas. Ahora exporta masivamente materias primas, hay países con clase media, y sin déficit públicos. Incluso hay países como Brasil y Colombia, que han comenzado a emitir deuda en moneda nacional porque tienen demanda y superávit de balanza. Mena destaca que el riesgo país no tiene comparación con datos de crisis anteriores, que los tipos de cambio se esta apreciando. En definitiva “aunque sufrirá, LATAM será de las regiones que menos sufran”.

¿Quieres profundizar sobre las reacciones a la crisis energética en Europa (política comercial y sectores económicos)? Consulta el análisis de iwwi, y si conoces un análisis similar publicado para España, te agradezco que lo compartas y nos des tu opinión.

Sachs talked in Expomanagement, Madrid, June 5th, of the crisis of violence and ecology the world faces, projections in 30 years time, and the need to respond to challenges with a new Economics for the 21st. century.

We are in a world of increasing ecological stress, possing new challenges, says Sachs, and Spain is in the epicenter of the challenge. On the down side, Spain is affected by energy dependency and a subtropical Mediterranean climate that is experiencing the effects of droughts and water stress: Water challenges are great. On the problem solving side, Spain is a leader in solar technology and wind tech, with an enormous potential.

The nature of the challenges requires policies of a long term thrust and “a new economics for the 21st. century”. His argument goes as follows: We have arrived at a very populated planet –that poses challenges for this generation not envisioned before. World gross product has increased up to 60.000 trillion dollars, in a world economy more dynamic than ever before in history (See slides here). While most of the word was excluded from economic growth in the twentieth century (growth started steadly in UK, Germany, Anglosaxon, and in the mid 20^th century in Japan), this century sees new incomers.

Rising literacy, improved communications, and new models of development explain this success for many new incomers. From 1978 China has doubled its economy every seven years (five continues cycles of impressive growth). And global growth will be doubling in 17 years, according to projections. This explains why oil and food prices are soaring.  We never before faced this scale of population and global growth.

Within this scenario Sachs makes the following predictions about year 2050. He says that in the next 20 years, Asia will catch up and its share of GNP will make more than half of world share. The share of GNP for the West envisioned in his projections goes back to the percentage held by the region of the world in year 1500 (25%).  Latin America also increases its share (measured together with Africa) to more than 25%. In this new scenario, China is seeing closing the growth and development gap in just two generations.

We are facing two crises, according to Sachs. One is a crisis of violence, highly connected with water shortages. The other is a crisis of ecology. Those are crisis for which planetary scale cooperation is needed.

Sachs presents data showing that human society is facing an unprecedented change on all key components of the earth system: land transformation, CO2 transformation, water use, nitrogen, plant invasions, bird extinctions, and marine fisheries. And he argues that extrapolation of production is not an option because ecological chaos would subdue unless there are political responses. Challenges include mass migration, and he predicts an explosion of mass migration from Africa looking for food and water in Europe. He proposes to dissect the technical problems, and design critical paths to take action.

He gives positive examples in Spain, pioneering the technology that could produce huge amounts of energy: Sachs mentions Iberdrola lead in concentrated solar thermo power technology. And he also speaks of the need to use fossils fuel safely, citing the example of Carbon Sequestration Systems. However, there is only one plan in the world, and governments are doing very little on this direction, while private initiative do not take action about it.

He says that “we are fighting wars in dry lands, while we are not investing in dry lands”. He defends mayor investments in agriculture, and direct investments in the poorest populations, so they can escape extreme poverty. Sending food is not the option, but helping the poor with     investment, irrigation and family planning.

Among the challenges:

• Bigger technological capacities are needed.

• Governments have to provide themselves with new tools of analysis and new ways of partnership with the private sector. While the public  sector should regulate, the  private sector have to participate.

• Talking specifically of Spain he mentions that the country needs to find alternatives not to destroy the oceans soil, with new solutions that do not do more of the same.

He quotes in Spanish a speech by President Kennedy in June 1963, after the Cuban Missile Crisis in order to explain the need to talk and make peace to solve problems globaly:  “La razón y el espíritu del ser humano han resuelto a menudo lo irresoluble… por ello podemos volver a hacerlo”.

Jon Williams, Head of Group Sustainable Development de HSBC plc participará en la Conferencia Green Strategy 2007 que se celebra en Savoy Place, Londres el 27 de noviembre. Jon Williams ha estado al frente de la estrategia de riego mediambiental de HSBC y de desarrollar oportunidades de negocios sostenibles para el banco. Participan tambien Jeremy Leggett, que forma parte del Board de Bank Sarasin (New Energies Invest AG Board), asi como del UK Government´s Renewables Energy, y Mike Barry, responsable del “Plan A” de Marks&Spencer, un Plan quinquenal de 100 puntos sobre medioambiente y sociedad, considerado rupturista e innovador en la materia. Más info: www.greenbizevents.co.uk

El estado de bienestar impulsado por países como China o India amenaza con incrementar la demanda energética a un ritmo no soportable. Los consumidores se enfrentarán en 2015 a precios del petróleo más altos y a la posibilidad de que el suministro no llegue a cubrir la demanda, y a un cambio climático. Son dos de las previsiones que ha dado a conocer, la Agencia Internacional de la Energía en su informe anual, World Energy Outlook, según informa El Pais, citando a Reuters (07-11-07): www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/AIE/califica/alarmante/crecimiento/demanda/energetica/elpepueco/20071107elpepueco_8/Tes

Los proyectos de reducción de emisiones no están reservados a las grandes empresas. En Brasil, Banco Sumitomo Mitsui Brasileiro S.A. (BMSB), subsidiario de Sumitomo Mitsui Bank Corporation, ha ayudado a poner en marcha transacciones de reducción de emisiones certificadas (CERs) en diez 10 proyectos de tamaño pequeño y mediano. En total se han transferido 1.5 millones de toneladas de CERs, derivados de proyectos muy variados (hidroeléctricos, de reducción metano, y co-generación mediante altas temperaturas). La novedad de la iniciativa reside en que ha posibilitado la negociación de CERs en el mercado global del carbón a agentes de dos países, Brasil y Japón. El Banco BMSB ha hecho posible a través de su experiencia y sus servicios, que gestores de pequeños y medianos proyectos comercialicen sus CERs con la mayor compañía eléctrica de Japón, Chugoku Electric Power Corporation. Finantial Times ha premiado con un sustainability Award al banco por “Stimulating the market in the region, giving SMEs access to the market, a key demonstration effect, proving Brazil as a reliable source of CERs.”

Nieves Concostrina es una periodista web, en el sentido de que ha sabido personalizar su espacio en Radio5. El dos de octubre de 2007 irradia una noticia interesante en el ámbito de la sostenibilidad y la protección del medio ambiente. Cuenta que en Puentegenil hay una funeraria que ha inventado un féretro rutilizable, que consiste en una capsula interior (no de madera) para cremacion o incineracion, y un féretro exterior, de madera noble y reciclable. El invento está aprobado ya por la Junta de Andalucia.

Alemania produce el 55 por ciento de la energía fotovoltaica mundial generada en paneles solares, a pesar que las nubes acompañen sus dias dos tercios del tiempo. Erik Kirschbaum escribe para Reuters el 29 de Julio sobre la ley de 2000, que ha convertido esta fuente de energía en un sector económico boyante, con un crecimiento en las exportaciones y el empleo que ha roto expectativas (www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSL2389939520070730) . Kirschbaum recalls that Germany´s photovoltaic systems generate 3,000 megawatts of power: 1,000 times more than in 1990. This is coupled with 250,000 jobs in the renewables energy sector, which are expected to double in solar power alone (90,000) in the next five years, and hit 200,000 in 2020.
So far just 3 percent of Germany’s electricity comes from the sun, but the government wants to raise the share of renewables to 27 percent of all energy by 2020 from 13 percent.
It is a thriving industry, with booming exports, growing at rates that surpassed the optimistic forecasts made by the fathers of the pioneering 2000 renewable energy law. This law, known as the EEG law, forces for 20 years power companies to buy daylight electricity at more than triple market prices .
They are legions of homeowners, farmers and small businesses who are capitalizing on the government-backed march into renewable energy, together with the grassroots movement in the fight against climate change.